Forecasting conditions

You can make a forecast for active Guarantee or Booking campaigns. Forecasting lets you estimate how likely it is that a campaign will be completed and identify which factors affect its delivery.

Forecasting principles

• Forecasts are based on collected statistics. If there is not enough traffic on a placement or it is unstable, no forecast is made or it may be inaccurate (in this case you'll see a warning about the inaccuracy of the forecast).

• Forecasts factor in almost all the basic settings of a campaign and its banners. A detailed list of supported and unsupported functionality is given below in the Limits section.

  If the campaign the forecast is being made for contains unsupported functionality, a forecast won't be made.

• When forecasting, inventory usage is estimated: if there are other Guarantee or Booking campaigns on a placement, a separate forecast is made for each of them (provided that there is no unsupported functionality in their parameters). As a result, the system calculates the number of impressions that the forecast campaign loses due to other campaigns or, conversely, takes away from other campaigns that use the same inventory.

Limits

Not all campaign and placement parameters can be taken into account when forecasting: some of them aren't supported yet. If the campaign the forecast is being made for contains unsupported functionality, a forecast won't be made.

Functionality	Taken into account	Not taken into account
Campaign and banner parameters	Campaign levels and banner priorities Limits on the number of impressions at the level of an ad campaign, flight, or banner Impression count method Impression running speed: uniform distribution of daily limit uniform distribution of general limit uniform distribution of general limit (automatic extension)	Limits on the number of clicks Sequential impressions Session impressions Industry
Campaign type	Guarantee (except for campaigns created under Adfox Header Bidding) Booking	Dynamic monetization Promo
Placement settings	Limits on the number of impressions at the site, section, and placement level Impression frequency	Other placement settings First Look
Targeting	By time By frequency By demographics By geography Logical targeting By device type By position By keywords and phrases By URL (prior to request parameters) By IP By operating system By browser By user characteristics (additional targets)	By audience segment (Yandex Audience and external DMPs) By behavior

Forecast period

The maximum forecast horizon is 180 days from the current date. If the end date of the campaign exceeds this period, the forecast is made for the next 180 days based on the calculation that the remaining number of impressions will be evenly spread over time until the end date of the campaign. For example, if there are 1,000,000 impressions left and 10 months remain before the end of the campaign, the forecast will be made for 180 days and 600,000 impressions.

If the end date of the campaign is not specified, the number of impressions is forecast for the next 180 days.

Forecast accuracy

The forecast accuracy depends on:

• The minimum number of impressions that the campaign receives daily. The more traffic a campaign has, the more accurate the forecast is.

• The use of unsupported functionality in contending campaigns. In the future, Adfox will expand the list of parameters taken into account when making a forecast.

• The volatility (variability) of traffic on placements. If traffic is stable, forecast accuracy increases.

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